大越期货油脂早报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but international biodiesel profits are low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian canola has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US relations and tariff issues affect the market [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in March decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,076, with a basis of 290, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On May 5th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average and moving upwards [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,550 - 7,950 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,584, with a basis of 670, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On May 5th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,430, with a basis of 95, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On May 5th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average but moving upwards [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].