大越期货白糖早报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the current position of white sugar is basically in place. For the intraday trading, a short - long strategy at low prices can be considered, with the main 09 contract focusing on the support around 5800 [4][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Conab estimates Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 4% year - on - year to 45.9 million tons, while USDA predicts a 2% increase to 44.7 million tons. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%. As of the end of March 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 10.7479 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons, and the sales rate was 55.79% (49.46% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6230, and the basis is 362 (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of March, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 4.7521 million tons, which is bullish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, with the net long position increasing, but the main trend is unclear, which is bullish [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance (USDA): Data from 2017 - 2024 shows the changes in initial inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [35]. - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance: From 2023/24 to 2024/25, data on sugar - crop planting area, yield per unit area, sugar production, import, consumption, balance change, international and domestic sugar prices are presented [39]. - Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance (Brick): From 2017 - 2024, it includes initial inventory, production, import, domestic supply, domestic consumption, total domestic consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.