焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-8）-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with the current high pig iron production providing some support, but the market is affected by both positive and negative factors [2]. - The price of coke is also expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the downstream demand is good, the price increase momentum is insufficient due to the weak cost support and limited procurement increment from steel mills [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is relatively abundant, downstream procurement slows, and the price is stable with a slight decline; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1100, basis is 192, spot premium to futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1927.1 tons, a decrease of 24.4 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; bearish [3]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main contract, short position decreases; bearish [3]. - Expectation: After the previous restocking, coke enterprises' inventory is at a reasonable level, and the restocking pace slows. The price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke production increases steadily, downstream demand is good, and inventory is mostly at a low level; neutral [8]. - Basis: Spot price is 1470, basis is - 37, spot discount to futures; bearish [8]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 978.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from last week; bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; bearish [8]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main contract, short position increases; bearish [8]. - Expectation: Although the demand from steel mills is good, the price increase momentum is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [8]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production, limited supply increment [5]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margin of steel mills, partial overdraft of restocking demand [10]. Prices - Mysteel: On May 7 (17:30), the spot prices of coking coal at ports from different countries and regions are provided [11]. - Mysteel: On May 7 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows prices of different types of coke at various ports [13]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 tons, a decrease of 12.6 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [23]. - Independent coke enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.8 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 782.5 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from last week; coke inventory is 666.4 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week [29]. Other Indicators - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [40]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [44].