大越期货螺卷早报-20250508

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For螺纹 (Rebar): The demand is seasonally rising, and the inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level. However, the purchasing willingness of traders remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the real - estate market remaining weak, the future demand may cool down. Considering the signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with rb2510 expected to trade between 3070 - 3140 [2]. - For热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Both supply and demand have weakened, the inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. With signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with hc2510 expected to trade between 3190 - 3250 [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Fundamental Analysis - 螺纹: Demand has a seasonal increase, inventory is low and decreasing, but downstream real - estate is in a downward cycle and trader purchasing is weak [2]. - 热卷: Supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked [6]. Basis Analysis - 螺纹: The spot price is 3220, and the basis is 122, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - 热卷: The spot price is 3270, and the basis is 53, indicating a bullish signal [6]. Inventory Analysis - 螺纹: The inventory in 35 major cities is 508.6 million tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - 热卷: The inventory in 33 major cities is 282.86 million tons, with a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, considered neutral [6]. Market Chart Analysis - 螺纹: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - 热卷: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is downward, considered neutral [6]. Main Position Analysis - 螺纹: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - 热卷: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. Factors Analysis - 利多 (Positive factors): For both products, production and inventory are at low levels, and consumption is increasing month - on - month. For热卷, the demand remains higher than the same period [2][3][7]. - 利空 (Negative factors): The downstream real - estate industry's downward cycle continues, and the terminal demand is weak and lower than the same period. For热卷, the downstream demand outlook is pessimistic [3][8].