大越期货豆粕早报-20250508
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-08 02:46
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2880 and 2940, maintaining a weak and oscillatory pattern in the short - term due to factors such as the increase in imported Brazilian soybeans, the expectation of the Sino - US tariff war, and the high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans [9][10]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200, with the domestic soybean market affected by the Sino - US tariff war, the increase in imported soybeans, and the high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - After the Sino - US tariff war landed, the US soybeans oscillated and rebounded, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets returned to oscillation, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [15]. - The domestic demand for soybean meal after the Spring Festival has weakened, but the tight supply supports the price expectation. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has dropped to a low level, and the spot price is strong [15]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Likely to Rise: The short - term import volume of domestic soybeans is lower than expected, the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains low, and there are still variables in the weather in South American soybean - producing areas [16]. - Likely to Fall: The import volume of domestic soybeans will rise to a high level in May, and the high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans persists [16]. - Soybeans - Likely to Rise: The Sino - US tariff war supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - Likely to Fall: The high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans persists, China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price [17]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From April 23 to May 7, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed a fluctuating trend [18]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From April 24 to May 7, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The soybean meal futures rose first and then fell, and the spot price was relatively strong before May Day [20][25]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From April 22 to May 7, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean meal increased, while the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 decreased to zero [22]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [34][35]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 to 2025 is presented, including sowing rate, harvesting rate, etc. [36][37][41] 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - The main short positions of soybeans increased, and the capital inflow was also positive [11].