大越期货菜粕早报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. It is currently affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, and the influence of soybean meal prices, leading to short - term range - bound fluctuations [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2540 and 2600 [9]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market. - The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia offsetting each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China, and the rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand fundamentals: Rapeseed meal prices have rebounded with the influence of soybean meal, and spot prices have followed suit. The basis remains at a relatively high level of discount. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is gradually recovering in the short term. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure. The additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes by China are bullish for rapeseed meal, but the bullish effect may be limited as no additional tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports [10][20]. - Basis: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 85, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, up 49.48% week - on - week from 0.97 million tons last week and down 44.23% year - on - year from 2.6 million tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [10]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [10]. - Historical supply and demand balance: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 5. Position Data - The long positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [10]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as low oil mill operation rates, low inventory, and short - term recovery in demand. The additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are bullish, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the bullish effect. The overall situation is neutral. - Basis: The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. - Inventory: The week - on - week increase in inventory is bullish, while the year - on - year decrease is also bullish. - Market trend: The price below the 20 - day moving average is bearish. - Main player positions: The increase in main long positions and capital inflow are bullish. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, tariff policies, and soybean meal prices [10].