大越期货甲醇早报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be weak and consolidate in the short - term. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2200 - 2270 [5]. - The fundamentals show that after the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market trading atmosphere became dull, and local prices declined. The port market maintained a linkage between spot and futures. Although the spot basis in the port was firm before the holiday, the price was under pressure after the holiday due to the expected increase in supply [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2509, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory in East and South China ports decreased, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish; the net long position of the main force decreased, which is bullish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2200 - 2270 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Some plants have shut down or have maintenance plans; the expected imports in March are low, and the port inventory has decreased more than expected; the olefin start - up is at a high level, and the traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; the inventory of methanol plants in the production areas is tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the start - up of refineries in northern Shandong is at a low level; the weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although the methanol price has increased significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on the cost, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the downstream; upstream plants are actively selling goods under high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price data: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.86% week - on - week; in Hebei, it decreased by 5.49% week - on - week. The futures closing price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton [7][8]. - Inventory data: As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 34.86 tons, a decrease of 10.16 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 7.44 tons to 19.83 tons [5]. - Spread data: The basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the import spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [7]. - Profit data: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 60 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged; the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol decreased by 340 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate data: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the operating rate in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [7][21]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shanxi Huayu, Henan Hebi, and Anhui Tanxin. Some plants in Inner Mongolia, like Jiutai, Xin'ao, and Inner Mongolia Rongxin, have maintenance plans in mid - to - late March [6]. - Foreign plants: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC, Kimiaya are reported to be in the process of recovery, while others like KRS are operating stably. In other countries, plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. are generally operating normally [56].