大越期货PVC期货早报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected production scheduling will increase next week due to fewer expected overhauls. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4835 - 4917. The supply has an overall strong pressure, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [8][9] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In April 2025, PVC production was 1.954977 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.51%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 332,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 126,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. [7] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 33.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 43.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 65.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.88 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.93%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand is close to the historical average. [8] - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 533 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 584 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2189.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] - Base Difference: On May 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4840 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 36 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [10] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory was 411,031 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 325,931 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 85,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.05%. The social inventory was 403,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 7.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%. [10] - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreased. [9][10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including indicators such as prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different types of PVC products (calcium carbide - based, ethylene - based), as well as their changes compared with the previous values. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Difference Trend: The report shows the historical trend of the base difference of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices. [17] - Price and Volume Trends: It presents the price, trading volume, and open interest trends of PVC futures, including the relationship between the futures price and moving averages (MA20), and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - Spread Analysis: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread. [23] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide - based PVC production process. [26][29][31][34] - PVC Supply Trends: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production profits, and daily/weekly production trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production. [39][40][42] - Demand Trends: Analyzes the demand - side indicators of PVC, including traders' sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and the cost - profit and production of paste resin. It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real - estate and infrastructure investment indicators. [44][45][56] - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory trends of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days. [60] - Ethylene - Based Analysis: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene - based PVC production process. [62] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from 2024 to 2025. [65][66]