大越期货沥青期货早报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt may remain flat next week as refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3400 - 3464 for the 2507 contract [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In May 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2318,000 tons, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 28.8231%, a 2.64 - percentage - point decrease. The sample enterprise output is 481,000 tons, an 8.38% decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 759,000 tons, a 1.07% increase. Next week, the supply pressure may remain the same [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 28.3%, a 0.08 - percentage - point decrease; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, a 0.88 - percentage - point increase; the modified asphalt开工率 is 8.1453%, a 0.90 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24.5%, a 4.50 - percentage - point increase; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 36.25%, a 4.25 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 439.55 yuan/ton, a 19.00% decrease, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 738.59 yuan/ton, a 19.30% increase. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - Basis: On May 7th, the Shandong spot price is 3565 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract is 155 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 1,411,000 tons, a 0.70% decrease; the in - factory inventory is 825,000 tons, an 8.53% decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 140,000 tons, unchanged [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 07 contract price closes above the MA20, showing a neutral signal [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][49]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: It presents the historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [58][59]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - Social and In - Factory Inventory: It shows the historical social and in - factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - In - Factory Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical in - factory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - Import and Export Analysis - Export and Import Trends: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [75][76]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread: It presents the historical spread trends of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [78][79][80]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment: It shows the historical highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It shows the historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: It presents the historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: It shows the historical building asphalt and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - Downstream开工率: It presents the historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108].