《农产品》日报-20250508
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-08 05:23
- Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information regarding the report industry investment ratings provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Palm Oil: The potential negative impact of increased production leading to a significant rise in inventory has caused the futures price to decline further and test the support at 3700 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures market is weak due to the influence of the Malaysian palm oil market, and it may test the previous low of around 7880 and could potentially break through and reach a new low [1]. - Soybean Oil: The upcoming Sino - US meeting in Switzerland has led to an optimistic outlook on Sino - US trade relations, boosting the CBOT soybean market. A decrease in US soybean crushing margins may reduce factory production, which is positive for the market. However, the US biodiesel policy may have a negative impact. In China, high basis has led to low purchasing, and an increase in Brazilian soybean arrivals will raise factory production, potentially easing the current supply shortage [1]. - Sugar: The supply concerns have eased as the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started well, and the US Department of Agriculture predicts an increase in India's sugar production. In China, rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent, and future imports may determine the market trend. The overall supply - demand situation is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to remain weak after the holiday [3][4]. - Cotton: In the short term, the macro environment dominates the market, and there may be significant fluctuations due to variables such as weather. The downstream market is slightly weakening, and finished - product inventories are accumulating slightly. Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the macro situation [5]. - Eggs: The downstream market has started post - holiday replenishment, but overall egg prices are stable with minor fluctuations due to supply pressure. The theoretical inventory of laying hens is expected to increase from May to June, which may have a negative impact on prices. In May, demand may support high - level stability, while in June, the supply - demand imbalance may lead to price drops. Short - selling is recommended for the 06 and 07 contracts [8]. - Meal: US soybeans have followed the decline of US soybean oil. The spring sowing progress is fast, and there is no weather - related speculation. The supply pressure from Brazil continues, and China's soybean arrivals are sufficient. In May, domestic arrivals are increasing, and oil - mill production is rising, but demand is not strong, putting pressure on the basis. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations [10]. - Pigs: During the May Day holiday, the live - pig spot price was stable, and the supply - demand relationship changed little. Second - fattening transactions declined in late April, and in May, the出栏 of previously second - fattened pigs may suppress the spot price. The demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract has factored in the post - holiday weakening expectation, and the market is expected to be stable with limited upward and downward movement [13]. - Corn: The market supply is tight, and the spot price is strong. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is less than half, and the selling enthusiasm in Northeast China is low. The downstream deep - processing industry has limited demand due to losses, and the breeding industry has limited growth due to wheat substitution. The port inventory needs to be digested, which restricts the price increase. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased breeding demand will support the price, but in the short - term, new wheat listings and policy releases may put pressure on the price [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Palm Oil: On May 7, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from February 6. The futures price of P2509 was 8204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68%. The basis was 346 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.11% [1]. - Soybean Oil: On May 7, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from February 6. The futures price of Y2509 was 7900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Sugar: On May 8, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The ICE raw - sugar main contract was 17.14 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.55% [3]. - Cotton: On May 8, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 12900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 67.40 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62% [5]. - Eggs: On May 8, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3769 yuan/500KG, an increase of 0.21%; the price of the 06 contract was 2890 yuan/500KG, an increase of 0.21% [8]. - Meal: On May 8, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2920 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2509 was 2565 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% [10]. - Pigs: On May 8, the futures price of the pig 2507 contract was 13535 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26%; the price of the 2509 contract was 13985 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% [13]. - Corn: On May 8, the futures price of corn 2507 was 2369 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17%. The futures price of corn starch 2507 was 2745 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% [15]. Spot Market - Palm Oil: On May 7, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from February 6 [1]. - Soybean Oil: On May 7, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from February 6 [1]. - Sugar: On May 8, the spot price in Nanning was 6160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%; the price in Kunming was 6015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% [3]. - Cotton: On May 8, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 13839 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [5]. - Eggs: On May 8, the egg - producing area price was 3.18 yuan/jin, a decrease of 1.93% [8]. - Meal: On May 8, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - Pigs: On May 8, the spot price in Henan was 14980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong was 15090 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - Corn: On May 8, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price of corn was 2320 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43%; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Industry Situation - Sugar: The cumulative national sugar production was 1074.79 million tons, an increase of 12.27% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 599.58 million tons, an increase of 26.64% year - on - year [3]. - Cotton: The commercial inventory was 451.52 million tons, a decrease of 6.7% month - on - month; the industrial inventory was 95.43 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - Eggs: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 4.20 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.18%; the price of culled chickens was 5.24 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.96% [8]. - Meal: The soybean inventory was 26008, an increase of 59.83%; the rapeseed meal inventory was 23735, an increase of 51.18% [10]. - Pigs: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 148474, a decrease of 1.31%; the weekly self - breeding profit was 85 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.09% [13]. - Corn: The north - south trade profit of corn was - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.81%; the weekly profit of corn starch in Shandong was - 174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [15].