《能源化工》日报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to continuous supply - side pressure and the possibility of further easing of geopolitical risks, increasing market concerns about a loose supply - demand pattern. After a short - term rebound, oil prices will continue to be under pressure and mainly fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. The suggested fluctuation ranges are [57, 67] for WTI, [59, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the futures price follows the fundamentals. The early arrival of the agricultural fertilizer - preparation peak season and industrial orders provide certain support, and the delayed resumption of maintenance devices supports the supply in the short - term. If the export policy is relaxed beyond expectations, the upside space of the futures price will expand. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy volatility on the options side [30][32]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price stopped falling and rebounded, but the weak supply - demand structure has not changed. The styrene market rose and then fell, with port inventories continuing to decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. It is recommended to short styrene at high levels [35][38]. Methanol - The inland methanol price is stable, but there is downward pressure on valuation. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high levels [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels. In the short - term, wait and see the short - term rebound. For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is obvious, and it is recommended to short at high levels, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimuli [46][51]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but beware of a significant decline in demand. It is recommended to hold short positions until the price reaches a low level. For PP, the supply pressure eases slightly in the second - quarter maintenance season, but the long - term outlook is weak, with a downward risk [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, it is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with the PX09 fluctuating in the 6000 - 6400 range. For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, and the TA09 is expected to fluctuate in the 4200 - 4500 range. For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the EG09 in the 4050 - 4300 range. For short - fiber, follow the raw materials and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee of PF06. For bottle - chips, the absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is supported to some extent [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent crude oil was at $61.08 on February 8th and $61.12 on May 7th, with a decline of $0.04 (- 0.07%); WTI was at $58.07 on both dates. The spreads of various crude oil varieties also changed to different degrees [2]. - EIA Data: As of the week ending May 2, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value. Refinery utilization rate was 89%. There were changes in inventory, production, import, and export data of various oil products [5]. Urea - Futures and Spot: Futures contract prices showed different changes, with the 01 - 05 contract spread decreasing by 8.26%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.44%, and the factory - inventory decreased by 10.58% on a weekly basis [30][32]. Styrene - Upstream: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw material prices changed. Pure benzene prices rose, and the import profit was - 163.4 yuan/ton [35]. - Spot and Futures: The styrene spot and futures prices rose, and the EB2506 increased by 1.5%. The port inventory of styrene decreased by 7.0% [36][38]. Methanol - Price and Spread: Futures contract prices increased, and the MA2505 - 2509 spread increased by 7.25%. The port - inland regional spread increased. - Inventory and Supply - Demand: The enterprise inventory increased by 7.26%, and the port inventory increased by 2.69%. The upstream and downstream operating rates showed different changes [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot had small changes. The SH2505 increased by 2.0%, and the V2505 increased by 0.7%. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends [46][49][50]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: The prices of PE and PP futures contracts increased slightly. The L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 10.70%. - Inventory and Operating Rate: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 21.31%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 19.76%. The operating rates of PE and PP showed different changes [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price and Spread: Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased. PX - related prices and spreads also changed. - Inventory and Operating Rate: MEG port inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed to different degrees [58].