钢材产业期现日报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Steel Industry: The steel industry shows a pattern of tight current supply and weak future expectations. Low inventory provides support for steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can offer upward potential for absolute prices. Given high production and potential peak in apparent demand, there are expectations of steel mill production cuts if demand weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage [1]. - Iron Ore Industry: The iron ore price is expected to continue facing downward pressure. The high pig iron production currently leads to iron ore inventory accumulation, and with the overseas mines' shipping volume surge from May to June and the increasing expectation of crude steel production cuts, the supply - demand pressure will intensify after the pig iron production reaches a phased peak [2]. - Coke Industry: Although the coke fundamentals have improved, the weak coking coal, over - capacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [4]. - Coking Coal Industry: The supply - demand situation of coking coal remains loose in the short term. With high supply, high imports, and high inventory, the coal price is in a downward trend. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [4]. - Silicon Iron Industry: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is alleviated, but due to the impact of electricity prices on the cost side, the price is expected to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in terminal demand and subsequent electricity price changes [5]. - Silicon Manganese Industry: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of silicon manganese is resolved to some extent, but considering the cost and potential supply release, and the weak support from the terminal, the price is expected to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in terminal demand and the resumption of sales in the South32 Zhangzhou mining area after May [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of most steel products increased slightly, and the basis of some products changed. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price increased by 17 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of some steel products changed, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China rebar decreased by 32 yuan/ton [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1 to 245.4, and the output of five major steel products increased by 7.9 to 883.7 [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 87.2 to 1447.1, and the inventory of rebar decreased by 58.3 to 644.0 [1]. - Demand: The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 44.6 to 970.9, and the apparent demand of rebar increased by 31.8 to 291.7 [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of some iron ore products increased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed. For example, the spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.5 [2]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 63.1 to 2449.7, and the global shipping volume decreased by 137.7 to 3050.5 [2]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1 to 245.4, and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 3.9 to 331.8 [2]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 50.1 to 14302.48, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 262.0 to 9335.1 [2]. Coke Industry - Prices and Spreads: The coke futures showed an oscillating downward trend, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened to 52. The second - round price increase of coke spot encountered resistance [4]. - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 67.0, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.4 [4]. - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1 to 245.4 [4]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased by 2.5 to 1012.3, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.9 to 99.0, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.9 to 675.2 [4]. Coking Coal Industry - Prices and Spreads: The coking coal futures showed an oscillating downward trend, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened to - 20. The prices of some coking coal products changed slightly [4]. - Supply: Domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the import volume decreased. The production of raw coal increased by 12.0 to 890.2, and the production of clean coal increased by 7.3 to 455.3 [4]. - Demand: With the continuous increase in the start - up of downstream blast furnaces and coking plants, the demand for coking coal increased [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 1.2 to 201.7, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 9.7 to 959.3, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 2.3 to 784.8 [4]. Silicon Iron Industry - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 32.0 to 5430.0, and the prices of some spot products changed. For example, the spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia decreased by 100.0 to 5350.0 [5]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of silicon iron production remained stable, and the production profit in Ningxia decreased by 100.0 to - 110.0 [5]. - Production: The weekly output of silicon iron increased by 0.0 to 9.9, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.2 to 30.8 [5]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon iron remained unchanged at 2.1, and the pig iron output increased by 1.1 to 245.4 [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 8.4, and the average available days of downstream silicon iron decreased by 0.8 to 15.4 [5]. Silicon Manganese Industry - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 38.0 to 5598.0, and the prices of some spot products decreased. For example, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 100.0 to 5550.0 [5]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of silicon manganese production in Inner Mongolia decreased by 11.1 to 5750.0, and the production profit decreased by 88.9 to - 200.0 [5]. - Manganese Ore Supply: The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 0.7 to 78.8, the arrival volume increased by 33.6 to 65.3, and the clearance volume increased by 6.9 to 49.5 [5]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: The manganese ore port inventory increased by 32.8 to 405.5 [5]. - Supply: The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased by 0.3 to 18.3, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.9 to 40.7 [5]. - Demand: The demand for silicon manganese increased by 0.1 to 12.8, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group remained unchanged at 1.1 [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 2.4 to 18.2, and the average available days of silicon manganese inventory increased by 0.3 to 17 [5].