广发期货日评-20250508

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The State Council Information Office announced a package of financial support policies, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and structural liquidity injections. Sino-US trade negotiations are expected to take place next week [2]. - The Federal Reserve's inaction implies stagflation risks, while there are hopes for Sino-US trade negotiations, leading to a correction in precious metals [2]. - EIA inventory data shows seasonal destocking, but the supply side still faces significant pressure [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Index futures opened higher due to the announced financial support policies. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options to earn premiums or go long on the June IM contract at low prices and sell out-of-the-money call options with a strike price of 6300 for a covered strategy [2]. Treasury Bonds - Short-term long bonds face some profit-taking pressure and are expected to trade sideways, while short bonds may strengthen due to reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It is recommended to go long after a correction and pay attention to the capital market trends. Positive arbitrage strategies for T, TF, and TS contracts can be considered, and a steepening strategy for the yield curve is also suggested [2]. Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's inaction implies stagflation risks, and there are hopes for Sino-US trade negotiations, leading to a correction in precious metals. Silver faces resistance at previous highs, with prices fluctuating narrowly between $32 - $33.5 (¥8000 - ¥8350). It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell relatively out-of-the-money call options at high prices [2]. Shipping Index - It is advisable to go long on the August contract or widen the spread between the August and June contracts. The market is in a sideways consolidation phase, and the reverse spread has widened. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - Hot metal production has significantly rebounded, and there have been macro-level reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Hot metal production remains high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. The market is expected to trade in a range, with the reference range for iron ore being 700 - 745 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke spot demand is still supported, but coking coal is weak, and the second round of price increases has been blocked, shattering the price increase expectations. The market auction has weakened again, coal mine production has slightly increased, but inventories are at a high level, and there is still room for prices to fall [2]. Crude Oil - EIA inventory data shows seasonal destocking, but the supply side still faces significant pressure. The recommended trading range for SC is 450 - 510 [2][3]. Chemicals - Different chemical products have different market conditions and trading recommendations. For example, PX is expected to trade in a range of 6000 - 6400, and it is recommended to widen the PX - SC spread at low levels; PTA is expected to trade in a range of 4200 - 4500, and short - term positive arbitrage and medium - term reverse arbitrage strategies can be considered [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different market conditions and trading recommendations. For example, soybean meal is expected to find support around 2900, and it is recommended to pay attention to the widening of the soybean - palm oil spread [2]. Special Commodities - Soda ash is facing significant supply pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Glass is expected to trade in a range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures have broken through support levels, and attention should be paid to the impact of excessive price drops on corporate production willingness. Lithium carbonate is dominated by short positions, and the market is expected to decline further, with the main contract expected to trade between 63,000 - 68,000 [2].