瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is entering a new stage with slowing supply growth, steadily recovering demand, and positive consumption expectations, and the fundamental support is gradually strengthening. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,330 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,389.5 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 550 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 179,692 lots, up 589 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper were 7,243 lots, up 6,096 lots. LME copper inventory was 193,975 tons, down 1,650 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 89,307 tons, down 27,446 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 86,125 tons, down 825 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants were 19,540 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,435 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 113 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 100 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 1,105 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was 21.65 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.39 million tons, up 21.1 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 42.61 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.09 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 68,710 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 69,410 yuan/metal ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 1.248 billion tons, up 0.006 billion tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 470,000 tons, up 50,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.1252 billion tons, down 0.1476 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 95.622 billion yuan, up 52.001 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 1,990.417 billion yuan, up 918.443 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,197,199,900 pieces, down 80,202,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.52%, down 12.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 24.49%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 15.51%, down 0.0022; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 0.88, up 0.0887 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies. The CSRC will fully support Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi - "stabilization fund". The head of the Financial Regulatory Administration said three measures would be introduced to support the stability and activity of the capital market. In March, the total import and export volume of automobile commodities was 23.82 billion dollars, with exports growing well. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Powell said he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates [2]