Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Corn Daily Report [1] - Date: May 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The supply of corn is relatively tight as the grassroots grain sources are almost exhausted, and traders are reluctant to sell due to bullish sentiment. Although the demand has a slight increase, the overall inventory is still at a high level. Therefore, the corn price is expected to be generally strong. The futures price of the 2507 contract may follow the spot price and fluctuate strongly, and the weather and growth conditions of wheat and corn production areas need to be continuously monitored [10]. Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Corn Market - Futures: On the 8th, the main 2507 contract of corn opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated lower, closing with a negative line. The highest was 2378 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2361 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous trading day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 25,075 lots to 2,175,349 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 8th, the FOB price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9]. Corn Review - Supply: The grassroots grain sources are basically exhausted, and the supply is mainly from traders. The bullish sentiment in the market has further intensified, and traders are reluctant to sell. The overall port inventory is in the destocking stage but is still at a high level compared to the same period. Regarding substitutes, wheat in North China has partially replaced corn for feed use, but concerns about wheat production due to drought in the production areas have driven up the prices of wheat and corn. The price advantage of imported barley, sorghum, etc. is not obvious, and the import volume may remain low [10]. - Demand: The continuous growth of pig inventory has led to an improvement in feed demand. Feed enterprises mainly purchase on - demand, replenish inventory in a rolling manner, and sign forward orders. Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, the starch inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the operating rate has declined. Enterprises may mainly maintain rigid procurement. The inventory of downstream feed enterprises has slightly increased and is at a high level, and they mainly execute previous orders. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. Overall, there is no obvious increase in processing demand [10]. Group 5: Industry News - On May 7th, the corn prices at the north - south ports were basically stable, with partial prices rising slightly. The price of corn with 15% moisture and a bulk density of 720 at Jinzhou Port was 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of corn with 15% moisture was 2310 - 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of corn with 15% moisture and a bulk density of 720 at Bayuquan Port was 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of corn with 15% moisture was 2310 - 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The transaction price of bulk corn with 15% moisture at Guangdong Shekou Port was 2350 - 2370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of first - class corn was 2430 - 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11][12]. - The supply from Northeast production areas was light, and the volume of corn gathered at northern ports decreased. The morning gathering volume was about 16,000 tons. Traders' purchase prices were strong, but the trading situation was slightly average. Feed enterprises at southern ports mainly executed previous contracts, the available spot was scarce, the arrival cost was high, and the futures market was strong, which boosted traders' quotes [12]. Group 6: Data Summary - As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,608,350 tons, compared with 1,666,415 tons last week and 1,299,008 tons in the same period last year [13]. - After the spring maintenance shutdown of factories, the demand for DDGS remains strong. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's grain processing report, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the United States in March was 504 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 8% but a year - on - year decrease of 4% [13]. - According to the position report of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, funds sold a large amount of CBOT corn futures and options, and the net long position decreased to 71,329 lots, a decrease of 41,476 lots or 37% from a week ago [13]. - According to the crop rating report released by the French Agricultural Bureau, as of April 28th, the corn planting progress reached 62%, compared with 50% a week ago, 42% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 63% [13]. - On May 6th in Chicago, the corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed mixed, showing a volatile pattern, with the benchmark contract up 0.28%. At the close, corn futures rose 1.25 cents to fell 3 cents, with the May contract up 1 cent, closing at 447.50 cents/bushel; the July contract up 1.25 cents, closing at 455.50 cents/bushel; the December contract down 1.75 cents, closing at 441.25 cents/bushel. The most actively traded July contract traded in a range of 452.50 cents to 454.25 cents [13]. - According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Sunday, the U.S. corn planting was 40% complete, slightly lower than the market expectation of 41% but higher than 35% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 39% [13]. - According to the latest data from the European Commission, as of May 4th, the EU's corn imports in the 2024/25 season had reached 677.1 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10% [13].
玉米日报-20250509
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-08 23:41