建信期货多晶硅日报-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market have changed little, as reflected in the large difference in the increase between near - and far - month contracts. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has gradually ended, and strong - stimulus policies have created a negative feedback. With the "tariff" dispute, the expectation of export improvement is weak. Polysilicon (280,000 tons), silicon wafers, and battery cells have all accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance requires greater production cuts, and there may be an expectation of increased production during the wet season. The large rebound of the near - month 06 contract is mainly due to the leading enterprises' announcement not to use the futures delivery warehouse for destocking and the exchange having only 60 lots of warehouse receipts, which causes market panic about delivery. The benchmark delivery product has a higher standard than the spot dense material, and the basis provides bottom support. In the short term, the significant increase in the volatility of the 06 contract attracts long - position funds to enter the market, but the weak fundamentals will limit the price rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and it is not advisable to continue chasing high during the session for the near - month contract. The resistance above 38,000 yuan (the current price range of re - feedstock) increases incrementally, and short - term operations need to be cautious [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The near - month polysilicon 06 contract has deeply declined, over - exhausting the bearish drivers. The shortage of the delivery benchmark product has reversed market sentiment, and the price once rose by 3.34% during the session. The closing price of PS2506 was 36,950 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.43%, a trading volume of 455,000 lots, an open interest of 6,752 lots, and a net increase of 4,212 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The fundamentals have limited changes. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has ended, policies have a negative feedback, and export improvement expectations are weak. Polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance needs larger production cuts and there may be increased production in the wet season. The 06 contract rebounded due to delivery - related factors. The basis supports the price, but weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and short - term operations should be cautious [4] 3.2 Market News - As of May 8, 2025, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 40 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Trina Solar released their Q1 2025 performance reports and held performance briefings. During the reporting period, the four companies had losses of 1.436 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, 1.638 billion yuan, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, with a total loss of 5.784 billion yuan. Longi Green Energy reduced its losses year - on - year, while the other three companies' losses decreased by 218.2%, 239.35%, and 355.88% respectively year - on - year [5]