大越期货尿素早报-20250509

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with high开工 rates, new capacity coming online, high daily production, and rapid inventory accumulation. Industrial demand, especially for compound fertilizers, is weakening, and agricultural demand is also in a downturn. Although there are some bullish factors such as the basis, the short - term trend of the urea main contract is expected to be volatile [4]. - The main bullish factor is the expectation of export policy, while the main bearish factors include high daily production, inventory accumulation, and weakening demand. The main logic is the high supply and marginal changes in demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Before the holiday, the urea futures market rebounded significantly due to news. Supply side has high开工 rates and new capacity, with expected high daily production. Inventory decreased from a high level and then rapidly accumulated again. Industrial demand, especially for compound fertilizers, weakened, and agricultural demand also declined. The export policy has no definite news of liberalization. The spot price of the delivery product is 1900 (unchanged), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 14, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Positions: The net long positions of the UR main contract increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The short - term rebound of the urea main contract, high daily production, inventory accumulation again, declining compound fertilizer开工, and weakening agricultural demand are expected to result in a volatile trend for UR today [4]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1900, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1900, unchanged; Henan spot price is 1900, unchanged; FOB China price is 1882 [6]. - Futures: The price of the 09 contract is 1886 (+5); UR01 price is 1781 (-14); UR05 price is 1912 (-4) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry's capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with different growth rates in each year. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].