建信期货宏观市场月报-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump 2.0's policies have severely disrupted the global political and economic order, bringing significant uncertainty and safe-haven demand to financial markets. After the emotional impact of the reciprocal tariffs in April subsides, the market will be more constrained by the restructuring of global economic and trade relations. Safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds will continue to be supported, while stocks and industrial metals are likely to experience a resistive decline. It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy for asset allocation in 2025, with the possibility of a more offensive approach in the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 1 - 4 Months Macro Market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" led to the strengthening of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, due to concerns about US stagflation and the attractiveness of Chinese and European assets, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed to overseas assets. In early April, Trump's reciprocal tariff details triggered a global financial market shock, followed by a recovery in market risk appetite due to negotiation signals [4][6]. 2. Macro Environment Review 2.1 China's Economy: Stable with Concerns - In early 2025, China's economy continued to recover steadily. In Q1 2025, real GDP and nominal GDP grew by 5.4% and 7.6% year - on - year respectively. Consumption became a stronger driver, while investment and net export contributions changed. However, there are still issues such as over - supply, real - estate inventory pressure, and weak inflation [7][8]. 2.2 US Economy: Short - term Contraction - In Q1 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis. Personal consumption and fixed investment were affected by Trump's policies, and net exports were a major drag. Employment showed some signs of weakness, and inflation expectations were high [19][22]. 2.3 China's Response to Uncertainty - China has introduced a series of policies, including accelerating service industry opening, implementing more active fiscal and monetary policies, and strengthening financial market support to deal with external uncertainties [28][30][31]. 2.4 Trump's Tariff Weaponization - Trump's tariff policies include border security tariffs, specific industry tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and China - specific tariffs. These policies have severely disrupted global trade order, leading to downward revisions of economic growth forecasts by international organizations [36][49]. 2.5 Fed's Decision to Maintain Rates - In May 2025, the Fed decided to maintain policy rates and balance - sheet reduction. The market expects rate cuts in 2025, but the Fed's decision depends on the overall economic situation, employment, and inflation [52]. 3. Asset Market Analysis - Chinese Treasury yields are expected to decline in 2025 but at a constrained rate. The US dollar index may fluctuate widely between 95 - 110, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to be weak. Chinese stocks may experience a resistive decline in Q2 and are likely to oscillate at a low level in 2025. Commodities are generally expected to be weak in 2025 [58][62][64]. 4. Medium - term Asset Allocation - It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy in 2025, with a focus on government bonds and gold in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, increase the allocation of blue - chip stocks and domestic - demand - dependent industrial metals. Currency and real estate should be under - allocated [69][70].