焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-9）-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the market sentiment has weakened due to the second round of coke price increase being stranded. The price is under pressure, but it is expected to remain stable in the short term as downstream profits are still available and开工 is okay, though the acceptance of high - priced coal is limited [2]. - For coke, although some steel mills have slowed down the procurement rhythm due to high inventory, the high pig iron production ensures the rigid demand, so the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Coal mine production is basically stable, with limited impact from individual mine shutdowns. The second - round coke price increase being stranded weakens market sentiment. Traders are accelerating shipments, coke enterprises are slowing down raw coal procurement, and some coal mine inventories are accumulating, putting pressure on coking coal prices. Rating: Neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1100, and the basis is 206, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 782.5 million tons, port inventory is 324.8 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.8 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons from last week. Rating: Bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line. Rating: Bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main coking coal position is net short, and the short position is increasing. Rating: Bearish [2]. - Expectation: It is difficult for the second - round coke price increase to be implemented. Currently, downstream profits are still available, and开工 is okay, but the acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. Most enterprises consume in - house inventory and do not replenish inventory excessively. The coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The price of raw coal is oscillating weakly. Coke enterprises can maintain small profits, and the overall production enthusiasm is okay, with a high and stable开工 rate. After the festival, steel mills' volume - control behavior has increased, and the shipment of some coke enterprises has slowed down, but the overall inventory pressure is small. Rating: Neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1470, and the basis is - 8, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 666.4 million tons, port inventory is 243.6 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 68.8 million tons. The total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from last week. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. Rating: Bearish [7]. - Expectation: Some steel mills have good arrival conditions, and their in - house inventory has increased to a relatively high level, so they slow down the coke procurement rhythm. However, considering the high pig iron production, the rigid demand for coke is still guaranteed. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production; Difficulty in increasing supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke and steel enterprises; Weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace开工 rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit space of steel mills; Partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Prices Coking Coal - On May 8 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal from Russia, the United States, and Australia in different regions are provided, with some prices having slight changes [10]. Coke - On May 8 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke in different ports, types, and origins are provided, with most prices remaining unchanged [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; Coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [21]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; Coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; Coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. Other Indicators - Coke oven capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].