棉花早报-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Views - The textile industry's prosperity index rebounded above the 52.47% boom-bust line in March. The ICAC's May report predicts an increase in production and a slight increase in consumption compared to the previous month, which is bearish. China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year in March. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 81.4%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.31 million tons for the 24/25 season, which is bearish [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,135 and a basis of 1,235 (for the 09 contract) indicates a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory for the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - The 20-day moving average is flat, and the K-line is near the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main force [4]. - Domestic cotton has entered the off-season for consumption, and the spot market is relatively quiet. There are rumors about Sino-US negotiations, along with interest rate and reserve requirement cuts, leading to a short-term rebound in futures, but there is significant upward pressure. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,000 in the short term [4]. - Bullish factor: The futures price is close to historical lows. Bearish factors: Decrease in foreign trade orders, increase in inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnation of exports to the US, and the European Union's introduction of import - restricting laws [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No information provided in the content 2.每日提示 - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It points out both bullish and bearish factors and provides a short - term price range prediction for the main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton [4][6]. 3.今日关注 - No information provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - Global cotton supply - demand balance data from USDA shows changes in production, consumption, exports, and ending inventory in different countries and regions from 2021/22 to 2024/25. For example, in 2024/25 (April estimate), China's production is 6.16 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons [11][19]. - China's cotton supply - demand balance data shows information such as sown area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, and ending inventory from 2022/23 to 2024/25. The estimated domestic cotton 3128B average price for 2024/25 is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton [19]. 5.持仓数据 - No information provided in the content