贵金属月报：贵金属仍受宏观左右-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From a long - term perspective, the century - long changes and Sino - US game have increased geopolitical risks, which, along with the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system, continuously push up the volatility center of gold prices. Trump 2.0's policies further consolidate the long - term bull market foundation of gold. [5][42] - In the medium - term, Trump's radical reforms increase the risks of US economic stagflation and global economic recession. Economic stimulus measures are needed, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate makes the RMB - denominated gold price more robust. The weak global economic outlook leads to a relatively weak silver and an increasing gold - silver ratio. [5][42] - In the short - term, after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut in mid - December 2024, gold started a new round of rise. In April, Trump's reciprocal tariff measures caused gold prices to break through $3,500 per ounce. Although there was a correction, the medium - term upward trend remains intact. [5][42] - The factors driving the rise of gold prices will continue to exist, though the short - term surge and high price - to - earnings ratio also mean increased price volatility. Investors are advised to trade with a long - bias, avoid full - position chasing, and not blindly short. Traders with a short - bias can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy. [5][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 1 - 4 Months' Precious Metals Trend Review - After the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut on December 18, 2024, gold prices started a new round of rise due to factors such as festival consumption expectations,避险需求, and the weakening of the US dollar and Treasury yields. In late January 2025, it returned to the medium - term upward channel since March 2024. [7] - In early April, Trump's tariff details caused a global financial market shock. Gold prices first dropped and then soared to $3,500 per ounce due to multiple 避险需求. After the mitigation of trade tensions, gold prices adjusted and then rebounded. [7] - As of 2025, London gold and silver rose 22.8% and 7.5% respectively. Shanghai gold and silver futures indices rose 24.1% and 7.6% respectively. Gold has a strong negative correlation with the US dollar and crude oil, a weakened positive correlation with silver, and a positive correlation with US Treasury real yields. [9] 3.2 Influence Factor Analysis 3.2.1 US Economic Short - term Contraction - Trump's domestic and foreign reforms disrupted the US economic and social order. In Q1 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, while the GDP deflator increased by 3.74%. [10] - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, higher than expected. The employment market showed some signs of weakness but remained generally stable. [12] - In March 2025, US inflation reached its lowest level since April 2021. However, tariff threats pushed up inflation expectations and depressed consumer confidence, posing an obstacle to the Fed's interest rate cut. [15][17] 3.2.2 Trump's Tariff Weaponization - Trump's tariff policies in 2025 can be divided into four categories: border security tariffs, specific industry tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and China - specific tariffs. [18] - These policies have seriously disrupted the global economic and trade order. Mainstream institutions have downgraded their economic growth forecasts. The WTO and IMF have lowered their global economic growth expectations for 2025. [26] - The US government plans to conduct phased negotiations with 18 economies in the next two months. Economies that fail to reach an agreement will face reciprocal tariffs. [27] 3.2.3 The Fed Maintained Stability without Cutting Interest Rates - At the third FOMC meeting in 2025, the Fed decided to keep the policy rate and balance - sheet reduction unchanged, in line with market expectations. The Fed's interest rate policy in 2025 depends on the comprehensive impact of Trump's reforms and overall economic indicators. [28] - The Fed believes that the US economy is still expanding steadily. It needs more data to determine how to balance price stability and full employment. [30][32] - Since 2024, central banks around the world have had different monetary policy stances. The Fed has paused rate cuts, the ECB has cut rates, the BoJ has raised rates, and the PBOC has cut reserve requirements and interest rates. [32][33] 3.2.4 Weak Operation of the US Dollar Exchange Rate and Treasury Yields - The 10 - year US Treasury yield first rose and then fell in 2024 - 2025. In 2025, it is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5%. [34] - The US dollar index first rose and then adjusted significantly in 2024 - 2025. It is expected to fluctuate between 95 - 110 in 2025. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be generally weak with a core fluctuation range of 7.1 - 7.5 against the US dollar. [36][37] 3.2.5 Gold Supply, Demand, and Market Structure - In the spot market, the global gold and silver ETF holdings first declined and then stabilized. As of the end of April 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased, while the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased. [38] - In the futures market, the net long ratio of gold and silver funds shows that the gold long - position crowding has decreased, while the silver long - position crowding remains high. [38] - In Q1 2025, the global gold supply increased by 1% year - on - year, and the demand increased by 15.6% year - on - year. Investment demand increased significantly, while jewelry and central bank net purchases decreased. [40] 3.3 Precious Metals Price Outlook - The long - term and medium - term factors driving gold price increases will continue to exist. Although gold prices may be more volatile in the short - term, the medium - term upward trend remains good. [42][44] - Investors are advised to trade with a long - bias, avoid full - position chasing, and not blindly short. Traders with a short - bias can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy. [44]