PTA、MEG早报-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Recently, some PTA plants have successively carried out maintenance. With the relatively strong downstream polyester load, the de - stocking of PTA itself is quite significant. In the short term, the spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. The future operation depends on the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - MEG: In May, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is expected to be low, and the de - stocking of social inventory will be reflected in port inventory. Considering the May - September spread, the spot basis will remain strong in the short term. After the significant decline in crude oil prices during the May Day holiday, the cost support is weak, and the absolute price of MEG is expected to trade in a low - range. The follow - up of polyester downstream orders and the operating load of the terminal sector need to be continuously monitored [7]. - Influencing factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and MEG leads to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved, and the spot basis strengthened in the afternoon. The mainstream spot basis is now at 09 + 120. The PTA factory inventory is 4.51 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the MEG futures rebounded after hitting a low, and the spot market was reluctant to sell. Driven by the news of the upward revision of polyester load, the average load in May is expected to reach around 94.5%, and the demand support exceeded expectations. The MEG futures strengthened, and the spot basis continued to strengthen. The inventory in East China is 691,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract increased [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and ending inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the MEG total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, operating rate, output, MEG consumption, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price - related Charts: Include bottle - chip spot price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spread, spot spread, and inventory analysis of related products from 2020 - 2025 [14][27][30][37][40]. - Operating Rate Charts: Show the operating rates of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, MEG) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) from 2020 - 2025 [51][55]. - Profit Charts: Display the production profits of PTA, MEG (different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 - 2025 [59][62][65].