大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,680 - 64,880 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,349 tons, a 26.69% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 86,988 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 13,940 tons, a 1.79% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 70,015 yuan/ton, a 0.57% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,663 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 70,765 yuan/ton, a 1.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,985 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On May 8th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 970 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 54,852 tons, a 7.48% week - on - week increase; the downstream inventory was 42,156 tons, a 6.67% week - on - week decrease; other inventories were 34,561 tons, a 3.54% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory was 131,569 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease, all higher than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [8]. - Expectation: In April 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 73,810 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 75,500 physical tons, a 2.29% month - on - month increase. The import volume in April was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 physical tons, a 20.00% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the degree of supply surplus has increased [8]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive factors: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - Negative factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - Prices: The prices of most lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.93% to 743 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.10% to 65,250 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 62.6%, a 0.16% decrease; the monthly production of lithium carbonate was 73,810 tons, a 6.65% decrease [16]. - Demand - side data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 229,200 tons, a 4.13% increase; the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 68,650 tons, a 0.36% decrease [16]. 3.4 Supply - Related Content - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [21]. - Production: The production of lithium ore from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, etc.) has shown different trends [21]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has been in a state of change, with periods of surplus and shortage [24]. - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) and the overall production have shown different trends [27]. - Import: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed [27]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, with some months showing a surplus and others a shortage [32]. - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the overall production have shown different trends [38]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed [38]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated [40]. 3.5 Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and the recycling of different types of lithium - containing materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, ternary battery black powder, etc.) have shown different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter inventory, downstream inventory, other inventory) and lithium hydroxide (downstream inventory, smelter inventory) has changed over time [16][51]. 3.7 Demand - Related Content - Lithium Batteries - Price: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated [55]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [55]. - Loading volume: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary batteries) has increased [16]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed [55]. - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursor has fluctuated [60]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursor has changed [60]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursor has fluctuated [63]. - Ternary Materials - Price: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated [66]. - Production: The weekly operating rate and monthly production of ternary materials have changed [66]. - Export and import: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [68]. - Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium - Price: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has fluctuated [70]. - Production: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [70][73]. - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. - New Energy Vehicles - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has increased [78]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has increased [78]. - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles has increased [78]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased [79].