大越期货菜粕早报-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2530 - 2590. The short - term price is affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the influence of soybean meal, and will return to range - bound trading [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory pressure at oil mills is not significant. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited as there is no tariff on rapeseed imports [10]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. - Bearish factors: The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased after March; the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 tons, up 49.48% week - on - week and down 44.23% year - on - year. The inventory of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost has rebounded. Oil - mill rapeseed inventory has slightly decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory has fallen to a low level. Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has rebounded from a low level [8][27][29]. - Price: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2500, with a basis of - 63, indicating a discount to the futures. The price of aquaculture fish has slightly rebounded, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [8][39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: The low oil - mill开机 rate and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited. Overall, it is neutral. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 63, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - Inventory: The inventory is 1.45 tons, up 49.48% week - on - week and down 44.23% year - on - year, which is bullish. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. - Main Position: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bullish. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2530 - 2590 in the short term [8][9][10].