摩根士丹利：石油手册_欧佩克增产后面临更弱的供需平衡

Investment Rating - The report indicates a lower outlook for Brent prices, with forecasts reduced by $5-10 per barrel due to increased OPEC supply and anticipated market surplus [1][14][26]. Core Insights - OPEC's recent quota increase of 411 kb/d in May and another similar increase in June suggests a trend towards higher production levels, leading to a projected market surplus of approximately 1.1 mb/d in 2H25 and 1.9 mb/d in 2026 [10][14][26]. - The Brent price is expected to decline to around $55 per barrel by 1H26, down from a previous estimate of $65 per barrel, reflecting the anticipated oversupply in the market [14][26][30]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the late 1997 downturn, where a similar increase in OPEC production coincided with a significant demand slump, resulting in a drastic price decline [21][22][25]. Supply and Demand Summary - OPEC supply is projected to grow by an additional 0.4 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, while non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 1.2 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026, leading to a total liquids balance surplus of approximately 1 mb/d in 2025 and 1.9 mb/d in 2026 [26][27][30]. - Total oil liquids demand is forecasted to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026, which is significantly outpaced by supply growth [26][27][30]. Price Forecasts - The report outlines a cautious price outlook, with Brent prices expected to remain at the lower end of the forecast range, likely settling in the mid-$50s per barrel by mid-2026 [29][30][36]. - The relationship between oil prices and shale break-evens suggests that prices may need to fall below the mid-$50s to balance the market, depending on demand impacts from external factors such as tariffs [30][31][36].