摩根士丹利：亚洲新兴市场股票策略_最新目标与路标 - 为何保持谨慎

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Defensives versus Cyclicals, particularly favoring Gold miners, Aerospace and Defense, and Consumer Staples [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook due to the ascendance of Multipolar World trends, with significant slowing in growth anticipated and further adjustments needed in valuations and earnings estimates [1][2] - Preferred markets include domestic Japan (unhedged), India, Singapore, and UAE, while being Equal-weight (EW) on China and Underweight (UW) on Korea and Taiwan [1] - Financials are favored over Semiconductors and Tech Hardware [1] Market Allocation - The report highlights a preference for Japan (30.6% allocation), India (12.9%), Singapore (3.3%), and UAE (1.4%), while being neutral on China (18.0%) and Taiwan (8.9%) [24] - The allocation reflects a strategic positioning in markets expected to perform better in the current economic climate [24] Earnings and Valuations - The report provides base-case earnings forecasts for major indices, with the TOPIX expected to reach 2,600 by December 2025, reflecting a 3% decrease from current levels [10] - The MSCI EM index is projected to decline to 1,050, a 6% drop, while the MSCI APxJ is expected to reach 550, also a 5% decrease [10] - The report outlines a Bull Case scenario for the MSCI APxJ reaching 3,100, indicating a potential upside of 12% [11] Global Economic Forecasts - Real GDP growth forecasts for major economies show a decline, with the US projected at 1.4% for 2025 and China at 4.2% [13] - The report anticipates a general slowdown in growth across Asia, with specific countries like India maintaining relatively higher growth rates [13] Inflation Projections - The report forecasts headline CPI for the US at 3.0% for 2025, while China is expected to remain low at 0.1% [15] - Inflation rates across Asia are projected to vary, with India expected to see a CPI of 4.9% [15] Focus List of Companies - The report includes a focus list of companies with Overweight ratings, such as Bajaj Finance Limited and ICICI Bank, indicating strong performance potential [29] - The focus list reflects a diverse range of sectors, including Financials, Consumer Staples, and Communication Services, with significant upside potential noted for several companies [29]