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摩根士丹利:随着美中贸易谈判即将启动,A 股市场情绪有所改善。
2025-05-09 05:19

Investment Rating - The report advises a balanced portfolio with high-quality, large-cap offshore internet names and A-share blue-chip consumer names [1][12]. Core Insights - A-share investor sentiment improved significantly, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) rising by 9 percentage points to 76% [2][6]. - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced a monetary easing package, including a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 10 basis point cut in the policy rate to 1.4% [11]. - High-level US-China trade negotiations are set to begin, which could lead to a gradual removal of tariffs, although a durable resolution remains uncertain [4][11]. Summary by Sections Investor Sentiment - The weighted MSASI improved to 76%, while the simple MSASI rose to 67% [2][6]. - Average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Northbound increased by 13%, 12%, and 19% respectively compared to the previous cycle [2]. Trade Negotiations - Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, marking the first high-level talks since tariff escalations [4]. - Current US effective tariffs on China are at 107%, with a potential reduction to 45% by year-end [4]. Monetary Policy - The PBoC's recent easing measures include a Rmb1.1 trillion lift in relending quota and support for the stock market [11]. - The easing package exceeded market expectations and indicates further room for monetary support [11]. Market Monitoring - Key indicators to monitor include the progress of US-China talks, potential tariff pauses, and developments regarding non-tariff measures against China [13].