摩根士丹利：油价下跌-亚洲受益程度有多大？

Investment Rating - The report suggests a favorable outlook for Asia due to falling oil prices, which is expected to reduce the oil burden on the region and potentially offset some growth drag [10]. Core Viewpoints - The decline in oil prices since early 2025, amounting to $12 per barrel, is attributed to both demand and supply factors, with predictions indicating that Asia's oil burden will decrease from 3.1% to 2.3% of GDP over the next 12 months [10][12]. - Countries such as Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, India, and Japan are expected to benefit more from the drop in oil prices, while net exporters like Malaysia and Australia will not see similar benefits [10][12]. - The report emphasizes that the impact of falling oil prices on Asia's economy is significant, as the region is heavily reliant on oil imports, with oil accounting for 25% of energy demand and 80% of energy trade balance [12]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Impact Assessment - The report evaluates the impact of oil price changes on Asia by considering three factors: whether the price drop is driven by demand or supply, the starting point of the oil burden, and the macroeconomic stability indicators such as inflation and current account balance [18][20]. - A sustained decline in oil prices is expected to exert further deflationary pressure and improve the current account balance, both of which are currently within the comfort zones of respective central banks [20][30]. Inflation and Current Account Balance - It is estimated that a $10 per barrel decrease in oil prices will lead to a 0.4 percentage point decline in the overall CPI inflation rate in Asia [21][30]. - The current account balance is projected to improve by 0.4 percentage points of GDP with a similar decrease in oil prices, benefiting countries with persistent current account deficits like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines [30][31]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report anticipates further interest rate cuts across Asia, particularly in response to the combined effects of falling oil prices, a weaker dollar, and economic growth drag from tariffs [36][40]. - The Philippines and Indonesia are expected to see the largest rate cuts, followed by South Korea, Thailand, and Australia [40][41].