LPG早报-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak fluctuations due to the overall weak fundamentals, despite the possible short - term post - holiday restocking demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Changes - In the civil gas market on Thursday, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4780, in East China at 4938, and in South China decreased by 50 to 5180. For imported gas, prices in East China dropped by 10 to 5143, and in South China by 20 to 5200. The price of ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4820, with the lowest price being the civil gas in Shandong at 4780. The PG futures fluctuated, with the basis of the 06 contract at 381 and the 06 - 07 month spread at 95. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East was closed [1] Weekly View - During the May Day holiday, the decline in the overseas LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Before the holiday, the official prices of May CP were released, with propane and butane decreasing by 5/15 to 610/590 US dollars respectively, higher than market expectations. The increase in CP discount drove up the import cost, providing some support for propane prices. The domestic civil gas prices remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4820 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, high arrival volumes led to significant port inventory accumulation. Factory inventories decreased slightly as upstream companies reduced prices to clear inventory before the holiday, but downstream restocking demand was average. After the holiday, arrival volumes are expected to decline gradually, especially the arrival of US cargoes. Upstream refinery supplies are expected to be stable in the short term, with potential increases in June due to the start - up of Guangxi Beihai and CNOOC Huizhou Phase II at the end of the month. Chemical demand is expected to be average. The demand for alkylated oil is weak, and factories have limited willingness to increase production in the short term. Although MTBE has short - term support from terminal restocking demand, it is expected to operate weakly due to high supply. Some PDH factories may reduce production due to raw material procurement issues [1]