芳烃橡胶早报-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in May, the overall de - stocking of PX and PTA continues, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to weaken as polyester reduces its load. The PTA processing fee is fully repaired. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding PXN at low prices and the opportunity of shrinking the forward PTA processing fee at high prices [2] - For MEG, the marginal is still in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited due to the implicit inventory. The supply reduction is limited under the good coal - to - MEG efficiency, and there is partial production conversion in oil - based MEG. The current valuation is relatively neutral, and the far - month supply - demand core focuses on the changes in imports and ethane - to - MEG efficiency under the subsequent tariff impact [3] - For polyester staple fiber, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in the future, but the processing fee on the futures market is not high (900 yuan/ton), and the lower price is supported by the low price difference between raw and recycled materials [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are the low absolute level of national explicit inventory, the slight rebound of the Thai cup - lump rubber price, and the rubber purchase and storage. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From April 29 to May 8, the price of crude oil decreased from 64.3 to 62.8, the price of PX CFR fluctuated, and the PTA processing fee and other indicators also changed. For example, the PTA processing fee changed from 184.0 to 223.0 and then to 223.0 again [2] - Device Changes: Taihua's 1.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Tongkun Jiatong's 3 million - ton device was restarted. PX's pre - holiday start - up was basically stable, and after the holiday, Zhejiang Petrochemical was expected to restart, while Shenghong and Liaoyang had plans to reduce the load in May [2] - Supply - Demand Situation: The pre - holiday start - up of PTA decreased month - on - month. During the holiday, Hengli Huizhou was under maintenance, and there were maintenance plans for Hengli Dalian and Honggang in May. Jiatong, Energy Investment, and Zhongtai were expected to restart. The overall start - up remained at a low level. On the demand side, the pre - holiday start - up of polyester was stable, while the start - up of downstream weaving and texturing decreased month - on - month [2] MEG - Price and Index Changes: From April 29 to May 8, the MEG outer - disk price increased from 488 to 498, and the MEG coal - to - profit increased from - 10 to 36 [3] - Device Changes: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton device was restarted, and Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance. Before the holiday, the start - up was basically stable. During the holiday, Xinjiang Tianye and Shaanxi Yanchang were expected to restart, and later Shaanxi Coal, Satellite, and CNOOC Shell had maintenance plans. Overseas, the restart of US Lotte and Malaysia Oil was postponed [3] - Supply - Demand Situation: The marginal is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited due to the implicit inventory. The supply reduction is limited under the good coal - to - MEG efficiency, and there is partial production conversion in oil - based MEG [3] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From April 29 to May 8, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6430 to 6415, and the short - fiber profit changed from 119 to 59 [3] - Device Changes: Not provided - Supply - Demand Situation: The pre - holiday start - up was maintained at a high level, the sales improved month - on - month, and the inventory decreased slightly. During the holiday, the start - up was expected to be maintained. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn decreased month - on - month, the raw material inventory decreased, and the finished - product inventory increased [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From April 29 to May 8, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber increased from 1695 to 1740, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased from 13860 to 14215 [3] - Device Changes: Not provided - Supply - Demand Situation: The main contradictions are the low absolute level of national explicit inventory, the slight rebound of the Thai cup - lump rubber price, and the rubber purchase and storage [3] Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From April 29 to May 8, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 790, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 707 to 685 and then increased to 700, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased from 880 to 865 [9] - Device Changes: Not provided - Supply - Demand Situation: Not provided