甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - For methanol, due to low shipments from Iran and limited time for the 05 contract, inventory is expected to decline to a seasonal low at the end of April. Be vigilant about lower - than - expected future shipments from Iran. In May, considering assumptions of Shenghong's shutdown and normal imports, inventory will accumulate, but the low inventory at the end of April will still influence trading. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low, providing a safety margin for long positions [2]. - For plastics, polyethylene has a neutral overall inventory situation. The 05 contract has a basis of +300 in North China and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. February's maintenance decreased, and domestic linear production increased. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - For PP, polypropylene's upstream and mid - stream inventories have increased during the holiday. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. PDH profit is around -600, and the draw production is neutral. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. In an over - capacity situation, the 05 contract is under pressure, which could be relieved by increased exports or monthly PDH device maintenance of 2 million tons [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened to 05 - 120, and the factory - pickup basis is -280. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. With concentrated spring maintenance, the开工 rate may reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression should be monitored. Export orders are decent, and in April, attention should be paid to the ZZJ meeting. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits with PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB400. PVC's comprehensive profit is -300. Current static inventory is high, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From April 29 to May 8, the daily change in动力煤期货 price was 0, while the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 32, and the盘面MTO profit increased by 25 [2]. - Inventory and Supply Outlook: Iran's low shipments may lead to inventory reaching a seasonal low at the end of April. In May, inventory is expected to accumulate, but low inventory at the end of April will still be a trading factor. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From April 29 to May 8, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged at 790, the North China LL price decreased by 30, and the华东LD price decreased by 50. The import profit remained at -44, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 485 [7]. - Market Situation: Polyethylene has a neutral overall inventory. The 05 contract basis is positive in North China and East China. Import profit is stable, and non - standard prices show different trends. New device pressure is a concern in 2025 [7]. PP - Price Data: From April 29 to May 8, the山东丙烯 price decreased by 70, the华东PP price decreased by 20, and the主力期货 price decreased by 44. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 96 [7]. - Market Situation: Polypropylene's upstream and mid - stream inventories have increased. The basis, non - standard price spreads, and import profit are at certain levels. With few future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand is average [7]. PVC - Price Data: From April 29 to May 8, the西北电石 price remained unchanged, the山东烧碱 price increased by 12, and the电石 - based PVC price in East China decreased by 40 [11]. - Market Situation: The basis has strengthened, downstream开工 is seasonal, and mid - and upstream inventories are decreasing. Spring maintenance may increase the开工 rate to 75%. Export orders are good, and various factors such as coal prices and macro policies should be monitored [11].