Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the global manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction zone for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may bring new breakthroughs in tariff conflicts, which could affect market sentiment. Operationally, silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market, with the sector under pressure and auxiliary materials stopping their decline, while the significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support [6]. - Overseas, the EU may propose to buy $56 billion worth of US products to end the trade war, certain auto parts from Canada and Mexico are exempt from a 25% tariff, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, supply - side production is at a loss, dampening production enthusiasm. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume of manganese ore in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production shows signs of peaking and falling, and price fluctuations may intensify after the decline in demand. The spot production profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and - 410 yuan/ton in Ningxia. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' steel procurement in May [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Macroeconomic aspect: The global manufacturing PMI in April was below 50% for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The Sino - US economic and trade talks from May 9 - 12 may bring new changes to tariff conflicts [6]. - Overseas aspect: The EU may buy $56 billion of US products, auto parts from Canada and Mexico are tariff - exempt, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - Supply - demand aspect: Supply - side production is unprofitable, with low production enthusiasm. Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production may peak and fall. Inner Mongolia's spot production profit is - 230 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 410 yuan/ton. Steel mills' May steel procurement should be monitored [6]. - Technical aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - Strategy suggestion: The sector is under pressure macroeconomically, while auxiliary materials stop falling. The significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support. Silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - As of May 9, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 635,300 lots, a net increase of 22,200 lots. The monthly spread was 68, a decrease of 10 [12]. - As of May 9, the manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 119,697, a decrease of 4,519. The price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts was 276, an increase of 126 [16]. Spot Market - As of May 9, the average ex - factory price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Supply and Inventory - This week (May 8), the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel grades (70%) was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The national silicon - manganese production (99%) was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week, and the daily average output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1,540 tons [26]. - As of May 8, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national capacity) was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons [29]. Upstream - As of May 8, the price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period, and the price of Australian manganese ore was 40 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 3 yuan/ton - degree [35]. - As of May 6, the electricity price for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it was 0.42 yuan/kWh, unchanged [35]. - As of April 25, 2025, the port inventory of imported manganese ore was 3.671 million tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons. The global shipment volume of South African manganese ore was 641,100 tons, an increase of 41.83% from last week and 30.91% from the same period last year. The global shipment volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 60,700 tons, a decrease of 61.04% from last week and 82.06% from the same period last year [40]. - As of May 9, the spot production cost in the northern region of silicon - manganese was 5,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was 6,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton [47]. Downstream - As of May 9, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last week and 111,400 tons from the same period last year [53]. - On April 17, the silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS was 5,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from March, and the ferrosilicon tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from March [53].
硅锰市场周报：锰矿库存大幅下降，弱现实下基差收敛-20250509
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-09 08:52