瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250509

Report Summary 1. Strategy Recommendation - Recommend trading the MA2509 contract in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic methanol market mainly declined due to insufficient market confidence. The low inventory in the coastal methanol market supported the spot and near - month markets, with the coastal market's decline less than that of the inland. The downstream demand decreased, and the inventory might accumulate in the short term [8] 3. Market Conditions Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures oscillated and closed lower this week, with a weekly decline of 1.07% [11] - As of May 9, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 63 [16] - As of May 8, there were 8380 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 1420 from last week [23] Spot Market - As of May 9, the mainstream price in the Taicang area of East China was 2420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was 2095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the northwest was 325 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [29] - As of May 8, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 263 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 77 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [35] - As of May 9, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from last week [40] 4. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - As of May 7, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [44] - As of May 8, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.62 US dollars per million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars per million British thermal units from last week [44] Industry - As of May 8, China's methanol production was 2,057,775 tons, an increase of 49,170 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 92.17%, a month - on - month increase of 2.45% [47] - As of May 7, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 551,900 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 12,900 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 27,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 303,900 tons, an increase of 20,600 tons from the previous period, a rise of 7.26%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,800 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.75% [53] - In March 2025, China's methanol imports were 473,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.81%; from January to March 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 2,077,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.70%. As of May 8, the methanol import profit was 90.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.2 yuan/ton from last week [56] Downstream - As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 82.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%. The overall industry start - up declined [59] - As of May 9, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 514 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week [62]