瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market rose strongly. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1820 - 1860 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 55 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the future, domestic urea production is expected to fluctuate slightly. Agricultural demand is increasing, and export policies are becoming clearer, which will boost port collection demand. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry in Northeast China is in the final stage, but its capacity utilization rate is expected to recover. Short - term urea enterprise inventories may decline steadily. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1920 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market rose strongly this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1820 - 1860 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 55 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - Market Outlook: Some domestic urea plants have resumed production, and daily output has increased. There are no plans for plant shutdowns next week, and 1 - 2 shut - down plants will resume production. Agricultural demand is increasing, and export policies are becoming clearer, which will increase port collection demand. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry in Northeast China is in the final stage, but its capacity utilization rate is expected to recover. Short - term urea enterprise inventories may decline steadily [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1920 yuan [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 1.94% [9]. - As of May 9, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 103 [13]. - As of May 9, there were 4970 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 29 from last week [20]. - Spot Market - As of May 8, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1910 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [26]. - As of May 8, the FOB price of urea in China was 260.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - As of May 8, the urea basis was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of May 7, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of May 8, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.62 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. - Industry - As of May 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1410000 tons, an increase of 9300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%; the average daily output was 201400 tons, an increase of 1300 tons from last week; the capacity utilization rate was 87.35%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous period [40]. - As of May 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 133000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.71%. As of May 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1065600 tons, a decrease of 126100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.58% [43]. - In March 2025, urea exports were 0.23 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63.62%; the average export price was 221.07 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36.20% [46]. - Downstream - As of May 8, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.90%, a decrease of 2.70 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 75.24% on average this week, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from last week [49].