碳酸锂市场周报：供给偏多需求谨慎，碳酸锂或有所承压-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly chart, with a weekly decline of 4.46% and an amplitude of 5.22%, closing at 63,020 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be under pressure, with a generally pessimistic outlook for lithium prices due to factors such as more supply, inventory accumulation, and cautious downstream demand [5]. - The macro - economic situation shows positive signs of consumption recovery. In terms of lithium carbonate fundamentals, the price of lithium ore has declined, and upstream smelters have cut production to some extent due to cost - profit inversion. However, the supply is still relatively abundant, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Downstream demand is mainly based on long - term contracts, and the willingness to buy spot is weak [5]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position, weak - volatile trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of lithium carbonate was weak and volatile on the weekly chart, with a closing price of 63,020 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3,240 yuan/ton, and an amplitude of 5.22% [5][10]. - Macro Situation: In 2024, the sales volume of consumer goods replacement reached over 1.3 trillion yuan, and in 2025, efforts will be made to expand consumption. The support funds of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been increased to 300 billion yuan, and subsidies for purchasing new digital products such as mobile phones have been implemented for the first time [5]. - Fundamentals: Overseas mining companies still have a strong price - holding sentiment, but the price of lithium ore has declined. Upstream smelters have cut production due to cost - profit inversion, but the supply is still relatively abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. Downstream demand is mainly based on long - term contracts, and the spot market trading is cold [5]. - Strategy: Light - position, weak - volatile trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to controlling risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of May 9, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 63,020 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3,240 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,120 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 240 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot Market: As of May 9, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,230 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 240 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of May 9, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 775 US dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 13 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.2355, a weekly decline of 0.88% [21]. - Lithium Mica: As of May 9, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,450 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 250 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,894 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 125 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,125.49 tons, an increase of 5,797.53 tons from February, a growth rate of 47.03%, and a year - on - year decline of 4.82%. The monthly export volume was 220.031 tons, a decrease of 197.1 tons from February, a decline of 47.25%, and a year - on - year decline of 31.68%. The monthly output was 43,180 tons, an increase of 7,490 tons from February, a growth rate of 20.99%, and a year - on - year growth of 14.78%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a monthly decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [32]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of May 9, 2025, the average price was 55,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 156,900 tons, an increase of 22,870 tons from February, a growth rate of 17.06%, and a year - on - year growth of 47.39% [35]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 178,600 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from February, a growth rate of 11.9%, and a year - on - year growth of 30.56%. The monthly operating rate was 57%, unchanged from last month and a year - on - year decline of 2% [40]. - Ternary Materials: As of this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable. As of March 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 54,050 tons, an increase of 9,130 tons from February, a growth rate of 20.33%, and a year - on - year growth of 8.86%. The monthly operating rate was 48%, a monthly increase of 8% and a year - on - year decline of 13% [43]. - Lithium Manganate: As of this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,670 tons, an increase of 870 tons from February, a growth rate of 9.89%, and a year - on - year growth of 49.92% [46]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 7,170 tons, an increase of 880 tons from February, a growth rate of 13.99%, and a year - on - year growth of 9.47% [51]. - Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: As of March 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 41.16%, a monthly increase of 0.85% and a year - on - year increase of 10.06%. The monthly output was 1,277,000 vehicles, a monthly increase of 43.81%, and the monthly sales volume was 1,237,000 vehicles, a monthly increase of 38.68%. The cumulative export volume was 441,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 43.65% [53][58]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.05, indicating an inverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to long volatility by constructing a long straddle option strategy [61].