螺纹钢市场周报：表需大幅回落，螺纹钢期价维持弱势-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebar futures price is expected to remain weak due to a significant decline in apparent demand, with the total inventory of rebar turning from a decreasing trend to an increasing one. The market lacks confidence in long - term terminal demand, and the mainstream positions are generally bearish. It is recommended to maintain a bearish trading strategy for the RB2510 contract and continue to hold "buy put" options [7][9][60] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Market Review - As of the close on May 9, the price of the rebar main contract was 3022 yuan/ton (-74), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3170 yuan/ton (-30). Rebar production continued to decline to 223.53 (-9.85) million tons. Apparent demand dropped significantly, with the current period's apparent demand at 213.9 (-77.81) million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 47.68 million tons. The total rebar inventory increased to 653.63 (+9.63) million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 229.63 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a 2.59 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 6.92 - percentage - point increase from last year [7] 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, China and the US will hold high - level economic and trade talks, and the central bank has taken measures to stabilize the property market. In terms of supply and demand, rebar production continued to decline, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 49%. The demand side faced pressure, and the inventory ended its consecutive decline. In terms of cost, the import volume of iron ore increased significantly, and the coal - coke market was weak. Technically, the RB2510 contract's daily K - line was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicators were below the 0 axis. It is recommended to maintain a bearish trading strategy for the RB2510 contract [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price Movement - This week, the RB2510 contract fluctuated downward. It was stronger than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 9th was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [15] 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - This week, the rebar warehouse receipts decreased, and the net short positions of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 157,039 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,282 tons. The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the rebar futures contract were 89,751 lots, an increase of 42,120 lots from the previous week [21] 3.2.3. Spot Price and Basis - This week, the spot price of rebar decreased, and the basis strengthened. On May 9, the spot price of Grade III 20mm HRB400 rebar in Hangzhou was 3,170 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 9th was 148 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton [25] 3.3. Upstream Market 3.3.1. Raw Material Prices - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. On May 9, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,540 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [32] 3.3.2. Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased this period, and the port inventory declined. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.344 million tons, a decrease of 452,000 tons compared to the previous period. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 835,600 tons [36] 3.3.3. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05% (-0.38%), the daily coke output was 535,000 tons (-27,000 tons), the coke inventory was 650,900 tons (-197,000 tons), the total coking coal inventory was 7.7517 million tons (-351,100 tons), and the available days of coking coal were 10.9 days (-0.44 days) [40] 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply Side - From January to April, the export volume of steel products increased year - on - year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to April, the export volume of steel products was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased, and the electric furnace steel operating rate decreased. The total rebar inventory increased month - on - month [44][47][50][54] 3.4.2. Demand Side - From January to March 2025, the new housing start area decreased by 24.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% year - on - year [57] 3.5. Options Market - Due to the inflection point of rebar inventory and the decline in apparent demand, as well as the lack of confidence in long - term terminal demand, it is recommended to continue to hold "buy put" options [60]