热轧卷板市场周报：成本支撑减弱，热卷期价弱势运行-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures price is weakly operating due to weakened cost support. The black series is performing sluggishly, and the market lacks confidence in long-term demand. It is recommended to conduct short-side trading on the HC2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on May 9, the futures price of the main hot-rolled coil contract was 3157 yuan/ton (-47 yuan), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton (-20 yuan) [7] - Hot-rolled coil production continued to increase to 320.38 million tons (+1.08 million tons) [7] - Terminal demand was blocked, and the apparent demand declined. The current apparent demand was 309.53 million tons (-23.19 million tons), (year-on-year +0.89 million tons) [7] - Factory inventories declined, and social inventories increased. The total inventory was 365.12 million tons (+10.85 million tons), (year-on-year -56.37 million tons) [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from last week and 6.92 percentage points from last year [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, China and the US will hold high-level economic and trade talks, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market [9] - Supply and demand aspect: The weekly production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate above 80%. Factory inventories declined, social inventories increased, and the total inventory ended its consecutive decline. Terminal demand was blocked, and the apparent demand declined [9] - Cost aspect: The import volume of iron ore increased significantly, and the supply increase expectation strengthened, with the ore price oscillating weakly. Coking coal production was normal, with a high coking coal auction failure rate. The demand for coke still had rigid support, but the market was cautious due to the rumor of crude steel production reduction [9] - Technical aspect: The daily K-line of the HC2510 contract was under pressure below multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0-axis [9] - Strategy recommendation: Conduct short-side trading on the HC2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price oscillated weakly. The HC2510 contract oscillated weakly and performed stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of -8 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan/ton [11][14] - This week, the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 297,005 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 37,011 tons, and the net long position of the top 20 was 149,883 contracts, an increase of 31,815 contracts from last week [17][21] - This week, the spot price decreased. On May 9, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3314 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price was stronger than the futures price, with a basis of 83 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week-on-week increase of 7 yuan/ton [23][25] 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. On May 9, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson iron ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week decrease of 7 yuan/dry ton, and the spot price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1540 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0 yuan/ton [28][30] - The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.404 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.18 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.344 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.452 million tons [32][34] - This week, the iron ore port inventory declined. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8356 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons, a decrease of 0.1673 million tons [36][38] - This week, the coking plant capacity utilization rate decreased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The daily coke output was 535,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons [40][42] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - From January to April, the steel export volume increased year-on-year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. From January to April, the steel export volume was 37.891 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [43][45] - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points from last week, and the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from last week [46][48] - The total hot-rolled coil inventory decreased. On May 8, the hot-rolled coil inventory in factories was 848,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 700 tons, and the social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.8032 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 115,500 tons [49][53] 3.4.2 Demand Side - The production and sales of automobiles and home appliances increased year-on-year. From January to March 2025, the total automobile production was 7.561 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and the total sales were 7.47 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [54][56]