Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend under the pattern of weak supply and demand. The main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead futures declined by 0.21%. The impact of reciprocal tariffs subsided, and market sentiment gradually recovered. However, the overall price of Shanghai lead remained under pressure due to the weakening domestic demand. The price fluctuations this week reflected the game between long and short forces in the market, with the short - side force gaining an advantage in the later part of the week [5]. - On the supply side, primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, with an increase in the operating rate and output. The continuous decline in lead prices has expanded the loss pressure of secondary lead, and some enterprises have lowered the quotation of scrap batteries. As the second quarter enters the traditional off - season, the replacement demand for batteries decreases, and it is difficult to increase the production of secondary lead in the future. The overall supply increment of secondary lead is limited. On the demand side, the overall market transaction is light, and the support for lead prices is limited. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased slightly, and demand was significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventory increased slightly, but overseas prices restricted the upward space of domestic prices. In general, the Shanghai lead price may rebound slightly in the short term due to inventory reduction, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. Subsequently, it will still fall from a high level due to demand. The Shanghai lead market may continue the volatile trend in the short term [5]. - It is recommended to operate with the main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead fluctuating between 16400 - 17500, with a stop - loss range of 16000 - 18000. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead futures was active this week, with a decline of 0.21%. The market was affected by weak domestic demand, and the short - side force had an advantage in the later part of the week [5]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, primary lead production increased, while secondary lead was restricted by losses and raw materials, and the supply increment was limited. On the demand side, the market transaction was light. Overseas inventory decreased slightly, and domestic inventory increased slightly. The processing fee of lead concentrate remained low. The Shanghai lead price may rebound slightly in the short term but will fall from a high level later. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead fluctuates mainly between 16400 - 17500, with a stop - loss range of 16000 - 18000 [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price: This week, the domestic futures price of lead declined, while the foreign futures price rose. As of May 9, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1970 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was 16805 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.53 [7][11]. - Futures Market Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the position change chart [12]. - Futures - Spot Basis: The domestic futures premium strengthened. As of May 9, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was - 225 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $9.32 per ton [17][19]. - Inventory: Foreign lead inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased. As of May 8, 2025, the total lead inventory was 47600 tons, an increase of 3300 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 255150 tons, a decrease of 9075 tons. As of May 9, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai lead was 38966 tons, an increase of 291 tons [34][38]. 3. Industry Situation - Supply - Primary Lead: As of May 1, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 79.19%, an increase of 5.49% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35900 tons, an increase of 3500 tons compared with last week [25]. - Supply - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate and output of secondary lead decreased significantly. As of May 1, 2025, the output of secondary lead in major domestic producing areas was 24300 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 48.9%, a decrease of 5.52% compared with the previous period. The number of secondary lead production enterprises increased. As of March 31, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [29][32][42]. - Supply - Trade: In January - February, the export of lead ore and the import of refined lead increased significantly. In March 2025, the import of lead concentrate was 116000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.18% and a year - on - year increase of 59.69%. The export of refined lead was 2828 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 66.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.38%. The total export of refined lead and lead products was 16913 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.83%. The import of refined lead was 2868 tons, the import of lead alloy was 8988 tons, and the total import of refined lead and lead products was 3981 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 197.96% [44][46]. - Demand - Lead Concentrate Processing Fee: As of May 8, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrate was 720 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee (TC) of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $20 per thousand tons, remaining flat overall [50]. - Demand - Automobile Production and Sales: In March 2025, China's automobile sales were 2.915 million, a month - on - month increase of 37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. Passenger car sales were 2.468 million, a month - on - month increase of 36% and a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Commercial vehicle sales were 447000, a month - on - month increase of 42.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. New energy vehicle sales were 1.237 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.1% [55]. - Demand - Battery and Charging Pile: The price of batteries declined, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles increased. As of March 2025, the number of national charging piles was 3899618. As of May 8, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 401 yuan per group [60].
沪铅市场周报：沪铅产量低迷徘徊，需求疲软铅价难涨-20250509
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-09 10:10