沪锡市场周报：供需两弱成交平淡，预计锡价震荡调整-20250509

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the bilateral trade agreement between the US and the UK eased market tensions, the US dollar index rose, and China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. However, in the smelting sector, production in Yunnan and Jiangxi is restricted. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - Technically, the trading is light with low positions. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. The closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Outlook: - Macro - aspect: Abroad, the US - UK trade agreement eased market tensions, the pound reversed its upward trend after the Bank of England's interest - rate cut, and the US dollar index rose. Domestically, China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - Fundamental - aspect: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing raw - material pressure, and Jiangxi is restricted by scrap supply, resulting in reduced production. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - Technical - aspect: The trading is light with low positions. Focus on the competition around MA10. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range [4]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of May 9, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,090 yuan/ton or 0.8% from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 31,877 US dollars/ton, an increase of 529 US dollars/ton or 1.69% from May 1 [7][10]. - Price Ratio: As of May 9, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange tin to nickel was 2.12, an increase of 0.01 from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.19, a decrease of 0.08 from April 30 [15]. - Position: As of May 9, 2025, the position of Shanghai tin was 56,313 lots, an increase of 184 lots or 0.33% from April 29. As of a certain time, the net position of the top 20 was 1,510 lots, an increase of 773 lots from April 30, 2025 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain - Supply - side - Tin Ore Import: In March 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 8,322.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.94%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 26,908.88 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.41% [23]. - Refined Tin Production: In April 2025, the refined tin production was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to February, the cumulative production was 29,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.97% [24]. - Tin Ore Processing Fee: On April 23, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 16.67% from April 3. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 11.54% from April 3 [28]. - Refined Tin Import and Export: As of May 8, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 16,983.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,075.05 yuan/ton or 15.33% from April 28. In March 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,100.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 146.52%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 7,155.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%. In March 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.19%. From January to March, the cumulative export was 6,240.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.78% [34]. - Inventory: As of May 8, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,755 tons, unchanged from April 30. As of April 30, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,909 tons, a decrease of 340 tons or 3.68% from the previous week. As of May 9, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 8,402 tons, a decrease of 204 tons or 2.37% from April 29 [40]. - Demand - side - Semiconductor Index: On May 8, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 4,430.44, an increase of 182.78 or 4.3% from May 1. From January to March 2025, the integrated circuit production was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, an increase of 1,136,586.3 million pieces or 11.59% from the same period last year [43]. - Tin - plated Sheet: As of March 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from February. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 169,082.83 tons, an increase of 31,991.04 tons or 23.34% from February [46].