摩根士丹利：华虹半导体

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating for Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd from Overweight to Equal-weight [1][6][27] Core Insights - The rising depreciation burden and intense pricing competition in the 8-inch wafer market are expected to lead to gross margin erosion in 2025 and 2026, indicating that the stock appears fairly valued [1][6][38] - The company guided for 2Q25 revenue of US$550-570 million, with a gross margin forecast of 7-9$541 million, showing a 0.3% increase quarter-over-quarter but an 18% decrease year-over-year, with a gross margin of 9.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][11] - The company reported a net income of US$4 million in 1Q25, a significant decline compared to the previous year [11] Guidance and Projections - For 2Q25, the company expects revenue to be between US$550-570 million, with a gross margin of 7-9%, indicating a continued decline in profitability [3][13] - The report revises the 2025 EPS estimate down by 14% but raises the 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts by 5% and 6%, respectively, due to anticipated capacity and shipment growth trends [23][24] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the 12-inch wafer demand remains strong, which may gradually drive up prices, while the 8-inch wafer market faces pricing pressure due to increased competition [4][38] - The acquisition of HLMC is noted, with plans for integration by 2026, focusing on overlapping mature-node business [5][38] Valuation - The price target for Hua Hong is raised to HK$34.00 from HK$32.00, reflecting changes in the EPS estimates for 2025-2027 [25][27] - The stock is currently trading at 1.2 times the estimated book value per share for 2025, which is considered fair compared to historical averages [27][39]