摩根士丹利：黄金-风险偏好与风险规避

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable price range for gold between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce, with a focus on ETF inflows as a key driver for future price movements [1][4]. Core Insights - Gold prices have stabilized after a rapid increase, primarily driven by strong ETF inflows, but recent outflows indicate competition from other asset classes [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 1% year-on-year increase in physical gold demand, driven entirely by investment demand, particularly from ETFs, which added 227 tons [2][4]. - Central bank demand decreased by 21% year-on-year, while jewelry demand fell by 19%, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [1][22][31]. Summary by Sections ETF Inflows and Demand - The report highlights that ETF inflows have reached their highest level since Q1 2022, with North America and Asia seeing significant contributions, particularly from China [4][15]. - Despite strong inflows earlier in the year, there have been 11 out of the last 13 trading days with outflows, indicating a shift in investor preference towards equities [5][39]. Physical Demand Trends - The first quarter of 2025 recorded a total gold demand of 1,206 tons, the highest for a first quarter since 2016, primarily due to strong ETF inflows [2][4]. - Demand for gold bars and coins increased by 3% year-on-year, reaching 325 tons, with notable contributions from China and Europe [15][18]. Central Bank and Jewelry Demand - Central bank gold purchases fell by 21% year-on-year, with Poland being the largest buyer, while China’s purchases slowed down significantly [22][31]. - Jewelry demand has weakened considerably, particularly in China and India, with declines of 32% and 25% respectively, attributed to high prices affecting consumer purchasing power [31][32]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report suggests that macroeconomic factors have less influence on gold prices compared to physical demand trends, with a potential 'stagflation' scenario providing a favorable environment for gold [35][36]. - The relationship between gold prices and real yields has weakened, indicating that uncertainty and physical demand are now the primary drivers [37][38].