大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. Although their main contract prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, considering the positive outcome of the China-US talks, it is predicted that both PE and PP will show a slightly stronger trend today [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March, both at recent lows. The market's expectation of loose liquidity has increased. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the export demand for products is weakened by tariffs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-80) [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 204, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.9%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 636,000 tons (+169,000), showing a bearish signal [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, but considering the positive outcome of the China - US talks and the off - season demand for agricultural films, it is predicted that PE will show a slightly stronger trend today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and improved expectations from the China - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launches, tariff - affected demand, and the off - season of agricultural films [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs were at recent lows. The market anticipates loose liquidity. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the export demand for products is weakened by tariffs. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7300 (-0) [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 315, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.5%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 676,000 tons (+112,000), showing a neutral signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, but considering the positive outcome of the China - US talks and the demand mainly for immediate needs, it is predicted that PP will show a slightly stronger trend today [6]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and improved expectations from the China - US talks; bearish factors include the weakening of crude oil and tariff - affected demand [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing year by year, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been increasing, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15].