大越期货玻璃周报-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated significantly and weakened. The closing price of the main contract FG2509 decreased by 4.44% compared to the previous week, reaching 1034 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass slabs in Hebei Shahe dropped by 3.78% to 1120 yuan/ton. The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The production profit feedback is obvious, and the glass output has dropped to a historical low. However, the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low, and the inventory of glass enterprises has returned to accumulation. Considering these factors, the glass futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1082 yuan/ton to 1034 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.44%. The spot benchmark price dropped from 1164 yuan/ton to 1120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.78%. The main basis increased from 82 yuan/ton to 86 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.88% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass slabs in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - The profit of coal - fired production lines has rebounded, the loss of natural - gas production lines has narrowed, and the profit of petroleum - coke production lines has turned negative [20]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 75.24%. The daily melting volume is 155,800 tons, and the supply is at a historical low [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low [3][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - As of May 8th, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.56 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.96% compared to the previous week, and the inventory has returned to accumulation [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Export | Import | Net Import | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Difference (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2017 | 5354 | 21 | 112 | - 91 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734% | | 2018 | 5162 | 22 | 86 | - 64 | 5088 | 5091 | - 3 | - 3.50% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 40 | | - 25 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.284% | | 2021 | 5494 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.24% | | 2022 | 5463 | 23 | 68 | - 45 | 5418 | 5327 | 91 | - 0.56% | - 1.54% | - 0.834% | | 2023 | 5301 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934% | | 2024E | 5510 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [49] Influence Factors Summary - Liberal Factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has been continuously decreasing to a historical low [5]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low, the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventory. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [7]. - Risk Points: The industry's resumption of production accelerates, and the macro and real - estate policies fall short of expectations [7].