大越期货纯碱周报-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward, with the main contract SA2509 closing 3.48% lower than the previous week at 1,305 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also decreased. Supply is expected to decline, but demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, and inventory is at a historical high. Overall, the soda ash supply is high and demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,305 yuan/ton, down 3.48% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2]. - Some enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and production profit has rebounded. The expected output next week is 680,000 tons, with an operating rate of about 80%, showing a downward trend in supply [2]. - Downstream demand from float and photovoltaic glass is average, with rigid demand replenishment and low raw material reserve intention. As of May 8, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7013 million tons, up 1.74% from the previous week, remaining at a historical high [2]. Impact Factors Summary - Likely to be favorable: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - Likely to be unfavorable: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,352 | 1,320 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1,305 | 1,325 | 20 | | Change Rate | - 3.48% | 0.38% | - 162.50% | [9] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [14]. - The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 29.60 yuan/ton, at a low level in the same period [17]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.74%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output was 740,700 tons, including 407,900 tons of heavy soda ash, with output falling from a historical high [20][22]. - The production rate of heavy soda ash was 55.07% [24]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity planned in each year. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 96.07% [28]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.24% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [31]. - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 91,000 tons, and production stabilized [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7013 million tons, including 872,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at a high level in the same period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [38].