焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-12）-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of the coking coal market is sufficient, with downstream market sentiment being cautious. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - The inventory of steel mills' coking coal is decreasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and ports is also showing a downward trend [23][26][29]. - The supply of the coke market is increasing, but the shipping of coking enterprises is under pressure. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. - The inventory of steel mills' coke is increasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises is also rising, and the port inventory is decreasing [23][26][29]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mines in production areas maintain stable production, with sufficient supply. The downstream market is cautious, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is average. Some coal prices have declined slightly, and the price is oscillating weakly [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1100, with a basis of 222.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons compared to last week [2]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Although the downstream coking and steel enterprises are operating at a high level and the demand for raw materials remains, with the arrival of the off - season, the finished product sales are poor. Steel mills mainly aim to clear inventory and purchase raw materials as needed. The coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Daily View - Coke - Fundamentals: With the continuous repair of profits, most coking enterprises maintain high production enthusiasm, and the supply of coke resources has increased. However, due to the slowdown in procurement by some steel mills, the shipping speed of coking enterprises has decreased, but the overall inventory remains at a low level [8]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1460, with a basis of 13.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to last week [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [8]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - Expectation: Currently, the raw material inventory of steel mills is continuously rising, and the phenomenon of controlling coke purchases has increased, resulting in pressure on coking enterprises' shipping. Coupled with the weakening of finished product prices and the decline in raw coal prices weakening cost support, the market bearish sentiment is continuously heating up. The coke price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. Price - Coking Coal Price: On May 9, 2025, the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and ports showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged [11]. - Coke Price: On May 9, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different regions and grades mostly showed a downward trend [13]. Inventory - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons compared to last week [23]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to last week [26]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to last week [29]. Other Indicators - Coking Plant Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% compared to last week [40]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan compared to last week [44].