大越期货国债期货早报-20250512

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends, with the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rising 0.4bp. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both declined again, with the former falling more than 3bp and the latter more than 7bp. After the central bank's interest - rate cut policy took effect, the overall interest - rate center declined, and with consecutive net injections in the open market in recent days, the liquidity expectation was optimistic, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] - The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute faded out completely. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. The first - quarter financial data was stable and positive. The CPI in March declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. There were new developments in the recent tariff negotiations, but it was still a long way from reaching an agreement, which would impact the bond market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts' price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and other information are presented. For example, the T2506 contract price was 109.060, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 78,100 and an open interest of 329,444 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - The fundamentals show that Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 77 billion yuan on that day [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were negative, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was positive, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts was 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Trend Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, and the long positions increased. The T main contract had a net long position, but the long positions decreased [5]