大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 62,420 - 63,620 [8][13] - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica has decreased, but production results in losses. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Neutral. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,866 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 1.64%, resulting in a loss of 4,513 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 69,841 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 1.30%, resulting in a loss of 7,060 yuan/ton. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [10] - Basis: On May 9th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 2,230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [10] - Inventory: The overall inventory is 131,569 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%, but still higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters increased by 7.48% month - on - month, the downstream inventory decreased by 6.67% month - on - month, and other inventories decreased by 3.54% month - on - month, showing a bearish signal [10] - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [10] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [10] - Likely Positive Factors: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11] - Likely Negative Factors: The supply at the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply - side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,349 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 26.69%, higher than the historical average. In April 2025, the output of lithium carbonate was 73,810 physical tons, and the predicted output for the next month is 75,500 physical tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The import volume in April was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 24,000 physical tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20.00% [7][8] - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 86,988 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.16%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 15,556 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 11.59%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [7][8] - Cost - side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily - on - day basis, lower than the historical average, and the degree of supply surplus has increased [8] 3.3 Market Overview of Lithium Compounds - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased from 743 US dollars/ton to 725 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.42%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2 - 2.5%) decreased from 1,425 yuan/ton to 1,385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81% [15] - Lithium Compounds: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 63,600 yuan/ton [15] - Lithium - Battery Materials: The price of lithium iron phosphate anhydrous remained unchanged at 10,815 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.5%) remained unchanged at 55,500 yuan/ton [15]