大越期货菜粕早报-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, and the impact of China's tariff policy on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it will return to a range - bound pattern [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict still has the possibility of escalation, which provides support for commodities [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [13]. - Bearish Factors: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - season demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023 and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. - Price and Transaction Data: It includes the trading data of rapeseed meal and soybean meal from April 25 to May 9, showing the changes in transaction prices and volumes. Also, the report provides the summary of rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from April 25 to May 9, as well as the statistics of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from April 24 to May 9 [14][15][17]. - Other Fundamental Information: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost bottomed out and rebounded. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [27][30][32][40]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by soybean meal and technical adjustments. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory supported the market. Spot demand is gradually recovering, and the increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has not put short - term pressure on oil mill inventories. The market has returned to a fluctuating pattern. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited [10]. - Basis: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 71, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, an increase of 49.48% week - on - week and a decrease of 44.23% year - on - year, which is bullish [10]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [10]. - Main Position: The main long positions decreased, but the capital inflow was positive, which is bullish [10]. - Expectation: In the short term, rapeseed meal is affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a rise and then a fall. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to a range - bound pattern [10].