铁合金期货周报：宁夏结算电价下调，合金急跌后反弹-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction has eased. The cost - side electricity price change needs further tracking, and the semi - coke price has temporarily stabilized. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5650 in the long - term and 5500 - 5900 in the short - term [4][8]. - For silicomanganese, the short - term price will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The bottom support of the futures price is strengthening as the increase of warehouse receipts stops and turns down. The supply - demand gap continues to narrow, and the manganese ore on the cost side is also gradually stabilizing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the rebound height depends on whether there are macro - level benefits. The main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 5900, and the short - term reference range is 5700 - 6000 [4][114]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract fell 1.54% (- 86) and closed at 5482 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and quotations from manufacturers and trading areas also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79% from the previous period. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 102,900 tons [8][31]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5681 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 231 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5460 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 110 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.4 Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a decrease of 2.00% from last week. The non - steel demand for magnesium metal was strong, but the downstream procurement was still cautious [8]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of May 8, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 73,700 tons, a decrease of 11.83% from the previous period [8]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract rose 0.7% (+ 40) and closed at 5758 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and trading areas showed different changes [114]. 3.2.2 Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week. The daily output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1540 tons, and the weekly output was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week [114]. 3.2.3 Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 229 yuan/ton; the production cost in Guangxi was 6348 yuan/ton [114]. 3.2.4 Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipment of South African manganese ore increased by 40.06% week - on - week, while the shipments of Australian and Gabonese manganese ore decreased. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different sources also changed [114]. 3.2.5 Manganese Ore Inventory - As of April 30, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 3671,000 tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons from the previous period [114]. 3.2.6 Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese from five major steel types was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate, and steel mill profitability all showed certain changes [114]. 3.2.7 Inventory - As of May 8, the national inventory was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons from the previous period, with different changes in different regions [114].