工业硅期货早报-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has decreased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery has emerged, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8110 - 8300 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand shows a decline but may rebound later, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 37150 - 38510 [9][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 67,000 tons, a 19.64% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy ingot inventories are also low [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 3555 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On May 9th, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 845 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 1.16% to 596,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.44% to 264,900 tons, and major port inventory decreased by 2.20% to 133,000 tons [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8110 - 8300 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 21,400 tons, a 4.46% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production for May is 94,800 tons, a 0.62% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output decreased by 7.07%, and inventory decreased by 12.07%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, while component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N-type polysilicon material in the industry is 36,630 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 3870 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On May 9th, the price of N-type polysilicon material was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 2670 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased by 1.53% to 257,000 tons, at a low level compared to the same period in history [11]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 37150 - 38510 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of industrial silicon, including different contracts, regions, and specifications [17]. - Polysilicon: It presents data on the prices, production, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [19].